Balkan migrations in half of the 2025

The most numerous migrant route to the European Union (EU) runs precisely through the so-called Balkans, if only because of its proximity to Asia. In 2023, Slovenia was replaced by neighboring Croatia in protecting the so-called Schengen border. The Schengen area, or the area without internal borders of the EU, has been an attractive destination for all types of migrants since its inception, including economic migrants and the real source of immigrant labor and, of course, economic expenditures and the increasing share of the unemployed among the working population in the EU.

However, in 2025, the trends of migrant routes through the Balkans to the EU are only decreasing. Perhaps this was due to the predicted economic crisis or lower GDP per capita in the G-7 group itself, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. Since 2009, the governments of the established BRIC and the current BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have been boasting of a much higher GDP per capita, especially compared to the G-7, which is of course especially tempting for attracting new members. So far, however, the announced BRIC-USD exchange rate and of course the euro have not been observed in international trade with them.

And of course, given the trends of BRICS expansion in Asia and Africa, which is certainly also due to the advertised higher GDP in the BRICS members, we can also partly explain the decline in the number of migrants from these parts to the EU.

The decline in migrants to the EU can also be partly explained by threats of an attack on the EU for supporting Ukraine. Since 2014, conflicts have been taking place on the Ukrainian-Russian border, which in 2022 spread to the entire territory of Ukraine. This war has triggered the mechanisms of legal migration from Ukraine to the EU.

Illegal migration finally began to decline in 2025, at least according to data from Slovenia. In the first half of 2025, 9,899 migrants-foreign citizens illegally crossed the Slovenian border. The largest number of illegal migrants is from Afghanistan, where the Taliban currently rule, Morocco and Bangladesh. The number of illegal migrants seems high at first glance, especially compared to the population of an average Slovenian city. However, this number is more than half less than the six-month number (21,248) for the same period in 2024.

The data for the processing of applications for international protection are also similar. From 20,458 applications for international protection in the six months of last year, the number of such applications fell by more than half in the first half of 2025, to 8,613. While Syrians dominated applications for international protection in the first half of last year, citizens of Afghanistan, Morocco, Bangladesh and Egypt dominate in the first half of 2025. The number of applicants for international protection from Syria decreased from 7,066 in the first half of 2024 to 624 in the same period this year. However, the number of applicants for international protection from Egypt and China increased in the same period in 2025, where there is no danger of war or a totalitarian state system that violates the fundamental human rights of its citizens.