Military, Demographic and Geopolitical Impacts of the Ukraine-Russia War

 

Timeline and Scope of the Conflict

As of November 2025, Ukraine, which shares a long border with the European Union (EU), has been engaged in a full-scale war that has been going on for over three and a half years. On February 24, 2022, a large-scale invasion by Russian military forces began. Soon, in early 2026, it will have been almost four years of continuous military conflict.

The current scale and intensity of the conflict place this conflict at the heart of the European security architecture. At over three years old, the war is approaching the length of some of the key European fronts in past global conflicts and is showing signs of potentially escalating from a regional to a broader global security problem.

 Military and peace aspects

According to data from the end of 2025, approximately 18-20% of the former Ukrainian territory is expected to be under Russian military occupation. Despite numerous diplomatic initiatives and talks that have taken place in recent years, there is no prospect of a stable, comprehensive peace agreement that would bring lasting peace, dignity and security to all parties – Ukraine, Russia and the international community.

The conflict has long since transcended the local military-security problem. Both sides are actively seeking global allies, which underlines the international dimension of the war:

* Ukraine retains the crucial support of NATO and EU countries, which provide it with military assistance, financial resources and humanitarian support.

* Russia is turning to a number of countries for military and economic support, including closer cooperation with North Korea and China.

 Humanitarian and demographic crisis

The war has caused one of the largest humanitarian crises in Europe since World War II.

At the time of the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine had an estimated population of around 41 million (excluding Crimea and the separatist territories). Data from the United Nations and other organizations indicate a large-scale population shift:

* Some 8.2 million people had fled to other countries by the end of 2023, becoming refugees.

* A further 5 to 8 million people were internally displaced, forced to flee their homes and seek safety in other regions of Ukraine.

Russian attacks expanded to critical infrastructure and military targets across Ukrainian territory in 2024 and 2025.

 Demographic comparison Russia and Ukraine (2022 vs. 2025)

A comparison of demographic data for both countries since the invasion reveals the severity of the demographic pressure, although interpretation of the data is complex due to war and migration flows:

# Russia's population has decreased from approximately 145.5 million to approximately 143.9 million and is experiencing a natural decrease (negative growth) that is further accelerated by the war (military losses, emigration). 

# Ukraine's population has decreased from approximately 41.0 million to approximately 38.9 million. The drastic decrease in population has been due to the refugee crisis and internal migration and military losses.

 Note: The data for Ukraine in 2025 refer to the population remaining within the internationally recognized borders under the control of Kiev and do not include all refugees abroad. Any short-term population "increases" in some urban centers are likely the result of internal displacement. However, both Ukraine and Russia have an increased fertility rate in 2025.

Geopolitical consequences and the role of the UN

War is a tragedy that causes death and suffering to the people of both countries. It draws attention to the failure of peaceful diplomatic solutions to pressing problems between the countries. The conflict has also exposed the limitations of international institutions, such as the United Nations (UN) with its Security Council, in ensuring respect for internationally recognized state borders and preventing aggression by a permanent member.

The current situation does not bring an end to the fighting, but only further hope for peace and security for the people who persist in their homelands.